Still thinking of buying that Tesla?

Why not a BYD, Nio, Qoros, Changan, Geely or Leapmotor from China?

There’s no question many of us are likely to buy our first electric car, if not now, possibly within the next ten years or so. And, as a pioneering EV vehicle producer, Tesla is probably the most prominent electric car brand in the world currently, just about every other car maker across the globe is playing catch up. Not to mention all the new start-up brands who want a slice of the action too.

In what has to be the biggest shake-up in the car world since it began at the end of the 19th century, it’s hard to predict who will eventually emerge as the sales winners. Ironically, the first cars were often powered by steam or electricity until petrol eventually became the main form of propulsion. The real race now isn’t between electric vs petrol/diesel power, EV’s have already won that one battle. No, what we don’t know is who will be the most successful at making them.

China, already ahead with electric car production

China is the one country that has been most committed to an EV future, backed by a government which has subsidised the purchase of electric, plugin hybrids and other new energy-powered vehicles (NEV’s) since 2009. It’s already the world’s largest market for EV’s. Currently, China accounts for around 50% of the global EV sector and is gearing up to become a significant exporter of electric cars as soon as possible.

The big question is; will car buyers throughout the rest of the world want to buy a Chinese EV, made by manufacturers unknown to the world auto market. The answer may depend on price, I suspect.

Electric cars are still more expensive to buy than petrol or diesel cars. That, together with concerns about infrastructure to charge EV’s easily and quickly, is still restricting EV sales beyond China, even though customer interest is growing.

If China can produce technically competent cars that are cheaper than those from the USA, Europe, Japan and Korea, we might soon become familiar with many car brands we’ve never heard of before – like some of those mentioned at the beginning of this article.

What the Chinese car industry has achieved so far

The truth is, Chinese car exports have been very limited to date, and the few that have been on sale beyond China have been less than impressive. All that is about to change.
Volvo has gone from strength to strength since it was taken over by Chinese carmaker, Geely, ten years ago. Geely now also controls Lotus, the famous UK-based sports car manufacturer, and have announced they have grand ambitions to help them become a sales success in the future. Elsewhere, a Chinese battery maker has become the official supplier of batteries to VW, replacing Samsung. A sign of things to come, perhaps?

What’s more, they already have an established infrastructure of fast -charging stations and, some brands are even offering quick battery changes on the go.  Chinese-made taxis, buses and trucks are already making inroads in several European markets. And, Tesla plans to build their cars in China very soon, no doubt others will follow.

This year’s Shanghai Auto Show demonstrated how far the latest Chinese EV’s have come. Many of these concept cars look very sophisticated and comparable to the latest models from the West. If anyone had any doubts about their real-world capability would have changed their minds if they had seen the NIO EP9 supercar in action at the 2019 Goodwood Festival of Speed, where it proved to be amazingly fast.

How China could become the world’s number one manufacturer of EV’s

China is already hiring respected car designers and engineers from established leading car brands worldwide. A tactic Korea’s Hyundai and Kia have used in recent times to fast-track development.

Not everything is going smoothly, though. Carsten Breitfeld, former head of BMW’s i-program, had joined  Chinese startup EV brand, Byton, as co-founder and CEO. Then just two years later, he left abruptly claiming excessive Government interference after an investment from FAW(Fiest Auto Works), the oldest Chinese carmaker. As more and worldwide automotive experts are brought on board to assist with the development of the fast-growing Chinese EV industry, it will be interesting to see if culture clashes such as this might hamper progress.

If China can gain brand credibility and sell technically competitive EV’s for less money than the competition, I can see it could become a serious player very quickly. Another reason they might succeed is that there’s a new generation of new car buyers with different priorities.

Fast-changing attitudes

Research has shown future buyers are likely to be more pragmatic and less passionate about the motorcar, although, for wealthier buyers, power, prestige and luxury features will still be a priority.

Electric cars are by nature more generic than petrol-engined cars – mostly, nobody knows or cares about what type of electric motor is under the bonnet, they sound the same, work much the same way (with different power outputs, of course).

World-buying trends suggest many people want an SUV they can afford, that’s comfortable, reliable and, increasingly, they want it to be socially responsible. They probably won’t care any more about its origin than their laptop, mobile phone or microwave. With these thoughts in mind, if the Chinese can make cars like this cheaper than other countries, they might rapidly become the world’s largest producer of EV’s.

Where that leaves car enthusiasts like us, is uncertain. Many will probably hold onto their favourite petrol-powered sports cars and classics as long as fuel prices and regulations allow them too. And, if there is a demand, I’m sure many manufacturers will find a way to make their sporty EVs fun to drive. Maybe the older generation of petrolheads will get over the issue of soundless motors. I’m not enamoured with the idea of artificially-created engine sounds which would be the simplest solution. Time will tell.

Who will become the famous brand names in the future?

Yes, there’s no question that we’re heading to an all-electric car future, a paradigm shift that will see a global EV brand battle like never seen before and, undoubtedly, China plans to become the ultimate winner.

If they are, your Audi might be replaced by a Nio, your Toyota by a BYD and your Subaru by a Leapmotor, whatever that is. Joking aside, it’s worth having a look at some of the recent EV releases from China, some look a bit anonymous to me but, that will change. Another possibility is that some traditional Euro/US brands could become Chinese-owned, or might disappear altogether if they aren’t a match with the many new brands coming to the market. Who knows?

That’s the thing about the future – it’s not easy to predict.